Insights That Move
India's Steel Trade

India's total steelmaking capacity, currently around 220 million tonnes in FY26, is projected to reach 300 million tonnes by 2030. The expansion is backed by fresh public and private investment aimed at meeting rising infrastructure and manufacturing demand.

India's green steel demand is forecast to climb from near-negligible levels today to about 4.49 million tonnes by FY30, with projections rising to 24 MT by FY35 and 73 MT by FY40, as steelmakers pivot toward lower-carbon production routes.

As of 31 March 2026, 89 steel units have earned green steel certification covering 12.34 million tonnes of production under India's official Green Steel Taxonomy. The Union Budget 2026-27 has proposed a ₹20,000 crore outlay over five years to deploy carbon capture technologies across steel and other industries.

JSW Group has started building its proposed 2 million tonnes per annum integrated steel plant at Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh. The project is expected to boost regional industrial activity, generate employment and add to India's steelmaking capacity.

India's scrap metal recycling market is projected to grow from $13 billion in 2025 to $22 billion by 2031, at an 8.4% CAGR. Steel mills have lifted scrap consumption from 24 MT in 2021 to over 34 MT by 2024, driven by electric arc furnace expansion and vehicle scrappage policy.

ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India has commissioned a 120,000 tonnes-per-annum specialised scrap processing facility, the first of four planned under a ₹3.5 billion investment. The move aims to strengthen domestic scrap supply chains amid rising electric arc furnace demand.

Persistent rainfall is curbing scrap arrivals at mills, with Jalna HMS 80:20 easing to ₹30,500 per tonne and Mumbai HMS 80:20 holding at the same level on a delivered basis. Logistics disruptions during the monsoon are keeping ferrous scrap supply tight even as buying interest stays cautious.

India's crude steel production reached 14.21 million tonnes in May 2026, up 2.9% year-on-year, while finished steel output rose 7.7% to 13.94 MT. Domestic demand stayed robust at 14.33 MT, recording 9.0% annual growth on the back of infrastructure and manufacturing activity.

India's scrap metal recycling market is set to expand from around USD 13 billion in 2025 to USD 22 billion by 2031, compounding at 8.4% annually. Formalisation through digital scrap-trading platforms, EAF-led steelmaking and tighter recycling mandates under the Solid Waste Management Rules are the key drivers behind the projected jump.

India has set a long-range target to lift crude steel capacity to 400 MT by the 2035-36 fiscal year, up from the existing roughly 220 MT, while more than doubling annual finished steel exports to 20 MT. The pathway hinges on continued PLI traction, dependable scrap availability and faster Electric Arc Furnace adoption alongside conventional blast furnace expansion.

Hot-rolled coil prices rose across major producing regions in May 2026, led by Brazil at 10% month-on-month, followed by Japan at 6.5% and China at 2.9%. The synchronous upmove in benchmark HRC prices is expected to support Indian mill realisations through Q2 and limit downward pressure from cheaper imports.

India has certified 89 steel units under its Green Steel Taxonomy, covering production of 12.34 million tonnes as of 31 March 2026. The country became the first in the world to introduce an official green steel framework in 2024, and the latest tally reflects accelerating uptake of low-emission steelmaking.

Primary steelmakers are holding TMT bar quotes firm at around ₹61,000 per tonne, while secondary mills are grappling with elevated power and electrode costs that are keeping their landed prices similarly elevated. Analysts see TMT trading in a ₹52,000–₹60,000/MT band through 2026, with monsoon-led demand softness the key downside risk.

India's steel imports jumped 30.8% year-on-year to 0.68 million tonnes in April 2026, well ahead of the 24.9% growth in exports, which reached 0.47 MT. The widening gap keeps India in net importer territory and is likely to revive industry calls for tighter safeguard action on cheap inbound HRC and CRC.

Indian brass has risen 16.7% from $5.87/kg to $6.85/kg over the past year, supported by sustained demand from construction, automotive components and electrical hardware. The Jamnagar brass cluster continues to anchor global small-parts supply, keeping order books at smelters firm.

Domestic mills are set to bring an additional 11.4 million tonnes of crude steel capacity online in 2026, lifting total output above 165 MT from an estimated 154 MT in 2025. The expansion is driven by integrated players ramping up blast furnace and EAF projects to meet infrastructure and auto demand.

Base metals closed firmer on Indian futures with copper rising 1.04% to ₹1,351.50/kg, aluminium adding 0.42% to ₹386/kg and zinc up 1.19% at ₹370.65/kg. Traders cited LME strength and tighter inventories ahead of a fresh demand cycle from power, EV and white-goods buyers.

HRC steel settled at $1,141.09 per tonne on May 21, slipping 0.08% on the day but holding a 2.8% gain over the past month and a 39.7% jump versus year-ago levels. The strength reflects firmer demand from infrastructure-led economies and tighter supply discipline among major producers, providing a supportive backdrop for Indian flat-steel mills.

Indian TMT bar prices entered Q2 2026 with firm bullish momentum, with primary producers quoting near ₹61,000 per tonne. Analysts expect prices to trade in a ₹52,000–₹60,000 per tonne band through the year, supported by infrastructure demand and elevated input costs.

An Indian competition regulator probe has concluded that Tata Steel, JSW Steel and SAIL breached antitrust law, according to a regulatory order. The findings could trigger penalties for the country's top integrated steelmakers and add a fresh overhang to the sector after a strong run in FY26 earnings.

Yellow brass scrap in Delhi was quoted at ₹434.55 per kg, with red brass commanding ₹521-543/kg on higher copper content. Copper cathode is trading at ₹760-780/kg and aluminium ingots at ₹200-205/kg, with non-ferrous prices supported by firm LME benchmarks and steady demand from construction, automotive and electrical component buyers.

Goldman Sachs has initiated coverage on India's ferrous metals space with a constructive view, naming JSW Steel as a top pick with a target of ₹1,490 and assigning Neutral on Tata Steel. The brokerage believes India will drive incremental global steel consumption this decade, projecting average PAT margins for major producers to rise from 2.7% in FY25 to 9.2% by FY28.

India's crude steel output surged 11% year-on-year in March 2026, reinforcing its status as one of the world's fastest-growing steel markets. Cumulative production for FY 2025-26 registered 9.1% growth, while finished steel exports rose 29.1% in March with Vietnam, Belgium and Taiwan as the top destinations.

Domestic steel prices in India have risen nearly 20% over the past four months, driven by the extension of safeguard duties, higher regional prices on elevated freight and energy costs, rupee weakness, and supply disruptions from gas shortages. Robust domestic demand from infrastructure and construction continues to support the price uptrend.

India and the European Union have launched a joint initiative on electric vehicle battery recycling under the India-EU Trade and Technology Council framework, announced on 5 May 2026. The programme includes coordinated calls for proposals supporting research and industrial collaboration on lithium, graphite and cobalt recovery and reuse for the EV value chain.

JSW Steel, India's largest steelmaker by capacity, plans to spend as much as Rs 24,000 crore in the current financial year, raising capital expenditure by nearly 50% as infrastructure-led demand and capacity expansion accelerate. The company aims to lift steelmaking capacity to 48.8 million tonnes annually by 2030 from 31.9 MT now.

Iron ore prices rose to USD 105.14 per tonne, the highest level since January 2026, on the back of resilient Chinese mill demand and steady global steel output. The firmer raw-material benchmark is likely to put a floor under domestic Indian steel and scrap quotes in the near term.

India's scrap metal recycling market is projected to expand at an 8.4% CAGR between 2025 and 2031, reaching USD 22 billion from an estimated USD 12 billion this year. Formalisation through digital platforms, EPR rules and rising EV battery waste are key growth drivers.

Copper futures on India's MCX touched almost Rs 1,300 per kg with a gain of over 6%, as global supply disruptions and tight LME inventories keep prices firm. Manufacturers of copper-intensive goods like air-conditioners, refrigerators and bath fittings are passing on the higher input costs to consumers.

India's total steel capacity stood at roughly 220 MTPA in FY 2025-26, on track for the National Steel Policy's 300 MTPA target by 2030. Longer-term, the government is aiming for 400 million tonnes by FY 2035-36 and plans to more than double exports to 20 MT.