Insights That Move
India's Steel Trade

Iron ore prices rose to USD 105.14 per tonne, the highest level since January 2026, on the back of resilient Chinese mill demand and steady global steel output. The firmer raw-material benchmark is likely to put a floor under domestic Indian steel and scrap quotes in the near term.

India's scrap metal recycling market is projected to expand at an 8.4% CAGR between 2025 and 2031, reaching USD 22 billion from an estimated USD 12 billion this year. Formalisation through digital platforms, EPR rules and rising EV battery waste are key growth drivers.

Copper futures on India's MCX touched almost Rs 1,300 per kg with a gain of over 6%, as global supply disruptions and tight LME inventories keep prices firm. Manufacturers of copper-intensive goods like air-conditioners, refrigerators and bath fittings are passing on the higher input costs to consumers.

India's total steel capacity stood at roughly 220 MTPA in FY 2025-26, on track for the National Steel Policy's 300 MTPA target by 2030. Longer-term, the government is aiming for 400 million tonnes by FY 2035-36 and plans to more than double exports to 20 MT.

As of 31 March 2026, 89 Indian steel units have been awarded Green Steel certification under the country's official Green Steel Taxonomy, covering a combined 12.34 million tonnes of production. India was the first country globally to introduce such a taxonomy back in 2024.

India's crude steel production rose to 14.09 million tonnes in April 2026, up 5.8% year-on-year, while finished steel consumption hit 12.99 MT — an 8.1% YoY increase. Sustained demand from construction, infrastructure, and manufacturing continues to underpin the growth momentum.

Brass scrap rates in Delhi were quoted at Rs 434.55 per kg on May 21, with red brass varieties (higher copper content) commanding Rs 521-543 per kg. On LME-linked Indian non-ferrous markets, aluminium ingots are trading at Rs 200-210/kg and copper cathode at Rs 760-780/kg.

Steel scrap CFR India was assessed at $390.10 per tonne in early May 2026, with global scrap and zinc markets reflecting balanced supply-demand fundamentals. Domestic Indian iron scrap rates remain in the Rs 28-36/kg range across metro markets, with tier-2 cities trading slightly lower at Rs 25-32/kg.

Primary TMT producers in India are maintaining firm quotes near Rs 61,000 per tonne as Q2 2026 opens on strong bullish momentum. The market is being driven by aggressive infrastructure spending alongside a surge in raw material costs across iron ore and scrap inputs.

Finished steel exports from India surged 29.1% year-on-year in March 2026, while imports declined 9.5% over the same period. Vietnam, Belgium and Taiwan were the top destinations for Indian finished steel, reinforcing the country's position as a net exporter even as global protectionism intensifies.

The Ministry of Steel has signed MoUs for 85 specialty steel projects spanning 55 companies under PLI 1.2, involving combined investment of Rs 11,887 crore and committed capacity addition of about 8.29 million tonnes. Separately, 89 steel units have now been awarded green steel certification covering 12.34 MT of output as of March 31, 2026.

India's crude steel production rose 11% year-on-year in March 2026, making it the fastest-growing major steel market globally as China's output slows. The country is expected to add roughly 11.4 million tonnes of fresh crude steel capacity in 2026, on top of an estimated 154 million tonnes produced in 2025.

Hot-rolled coil (HRC) steel prices eased marginally to USD 1,141.09 per tonne on May 21, down 0.08% from the previous session. Goldman Sachs forecasts broadly stable global steel prices through the rest of 2026, supported by sustained infrastructure demand and steady output from major producers.

India's stainless steel market entered cautious stability in the week of April 20–26, with the average market price holding at ₹2,60,500/MT as robust demand from infrastructure (metro rail, water treatment) and defense procurement programs offset concerns around sharp LME nickel swings and Strait of Hormuz supply chain risks; domestic producers Jindal and Rimjhim maintained disciplined pricing — Rimjhim's CR coils averaged ₹2,77,500/MT in Kanpur — with buyers hesitant to contract aggressively ahead of a potential nickel-driven price catalyst in either direction.

India's Competition Commission has formally determined that Tata Steel, JSW Steel, and SAIL — along with 25 other companies — colluded to manipulate steel prices and restrict supply between 2015 and 2023; JSW Steel and SAIL have formally denied the allegations, but the ruling creates regulatory and reputational risk for India's top primary producers at a time when the sector relies on continued government policy support through safeguard duties.

Indian TMT rebar spot prices remain firm near ₹61,000/MT in late April, with primary producers holding firm quotes while secondary mills in Rajasthan and UP face intermittent energy shortages linked to Gulf industrial fuel supply disruptions; the approaching monsoon typically softens construction demand but ongoing supply constraints are offsetting the usual seasonal price pressure.

India's three largest secondary steel manufacturing hubs — Mandi Gobindgarh (Punjab), Bhavnagar (Gujarat), and Raipur (Chhattisgarh) — continue to be the structural anchors of domestic HMS and rerolling scrap demand in FY2026-27, with EAF and induction furnace mills in these clusters absorbing bulk volumes of both domestic and imported scrap; as India's Solid Waste Management Rules 2026 tighten mandatory EPR compliance and landfill bans, formal scrap processors supplying these hubs are gaining market share over unorganised rivals while investing in quality-grading infrastructure to meet rising standards demanded by green steel-aligned producers.

India has imposed a five-year anti-dumping duty on imports of cold-rolled non-oriented (CRNO) electrical steel from China, with levies ranging from $223.8 to $414.9 per tonne — protecting domestic producers of electrical steel used in EV motors, power transformers, and grid infrastructure; the measure adds to the existing safeguard duty framework and is particularly significant as India's PLI Scheme 1.2 for specialty steel targets 8.7 MT of new electrical and alloy steel capacity by FY2031.

A HSBC Global Investment Research report designates India's metals and mining sector among the most favourably positioned globally in 2026, citing the three-year stepped safeguard duty as a structural earnings floor for flat steel producers, cumulative domestic HRC price hikes of Rs 2,000/T implemented in December 2025 with a further Rs 1,500–2,000/T expected by end of Q1 2026, and broader macro tailwinds including a weaker US dollar and supply-side constraints in copper and aluminium; HSBC forecasts steel equities will "significantly improve" in 2026 as they catch up with base metals that led returns in 2025, with robust sector balance sheets providing additional re-rating support.

India's domestic flat steel prices have risen 18–25% since the government's extended safeguard duty on imported flat products took effect, with hot-rolled coil prices climbing 6% month-on-month and 12% year-on-year; the rally is further supported by traders building inventory to hedge against Middle East volatility, lower imports, and NMDC's April iron ore price hike — all converging to sustain elevated domestic price levels ahead of the pre-monsoon construction peak.

Disruptions in LPG and industrial gas supply linked to Middle East conflict escalation are curtailing output at induction furnace-based secondary steel mills across Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and parts of Maharashtra, compounding already elevated HMS scrap costs (₹38,500–₹42,050/MT); the government has increased LPG allocations to critical industrial sectors as mitigation, but intermittent shortages are expected to persist into May, keeping secondary mill production below capacity and providing indirect support to TMT bar prices even as primary producers hold firm near ₹61,000/MT.

State-owned NMDC raised its iron ore lump prices by ₹500 per tonne and fines by ₹450 per tonne in April 2026 — a meaningful cost signal for India's blast furnace-based integrated steel producers at a time when coking coal import costs remain elevated and capesize freight rates have risen from $9.80 to $12.20/tonne due to Hormuz disruptions; the hike is expected to add modest pressure to finished steel production costs at BF-BOF mills while keeping pellet-fed DRI producers partially insulated.

Gold and silver extended their multi-day correction on April 24, 2026, with gold sliding 0.4% and silver losing more than 1% intraday on MCX, pressured by a firming US dollar, rising bond yields, and higher crude oil prices; gold has now shed roughly 3% over the week, snapping a four-week rally from the April 19 highs, while silver's sharp ₹2,300/kg drop reflects its higher beta to industrial demand signals in base metals.

Iron ore analysts project a range-bound $95–$110 per tonne trading pattern through 2026, with China's periodic steel mill restocking cycles providing intermittent demand pulses and India's expanding BF-BOF capacity sustaining long-run import requirements; following the April 2026 recovery to a 3-month high of $105.14/tonne, a decisive sustained breakout above $110/T is seen as contingent on meaningful Chinese property sector recovery — a scenario markets continue to regard as uncertain heading into H2 2026.

India's seaborne scrap metal imports have ramped up sharply, primarily driven by capacity expansion programs at JSW Steel and Tata Steel — as their new EAF and induction furnace additions outstrip the growth of formalised domestic scrap collection infrastructure; with domestic HMS availability projected at approximately 36 million tonnes in FY2026-27 and aggregate mill demand substantially higher, the import gap is expected to widen as India's steel capacity continues its march toward the 300 MT target by 2030.

India's mild steel prices span a wide range across grades as of late April 2026: standard structural MS ranges from ₹50,000–52,000/MT, while specialty and premium grades reach up to ₹68,000/MT; TMT bars quote at ₹52–58/kg nationally with Mumbai primary grades at ₹61,305–₹64,918/tonne; the broad price band reflects the divergence between primary integrated producers — who are sustaining firm quotes aided by the safeguard duty — and cost-pressured secondary mills managing elevated HMS scrap inputs (₹38,500–₹42,050/MT) and energy headwinds heading into the June–August monsoon construction slowdown.

LME aluminium cash-settlement price reached $3,652/MT on April 23, 2026 — extending April's 12.5%+ monthly gain and the strongest single-month industrial metal performance — as Middle East logistical disruptions created deepening backwardation in the forward curve, signalling acute physical tightness; India's MCX aluminium futures and downstream fabrication costs for auto components, power cables, and packaging continue trending higher with no near-term relief evident.

ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India has become the first integrated steel producer to receive India's official green steel certification from the National Institute of Secondary Steel Technology (NISST) — hot-rolled coils awarded four-star and cold-rolled coils three-star ratings — setting a precedent ahead of the Ministry of Steel's broader green steel taxonomy rollout and enabling auto OEM and export customers to count Scope 3 emissions reductions.

LME aluminium surged further to $3,630.50/tonne (+2.77% intraday) on April 22 — extending April's 12.49% monthly gain (48.83% year-on-year) — as the Strait of Hormuz closure threatens the Persian Gulf's ~9% share of global primary aluminium supply; India's MCX aluminium futures and downstream fabrication costs in auto components, power cables, and packaging remain structurally elevated with no near-term relief signal.

Crude oil prices moved notably higher on April 22, 2026 — adding fresh energy cost pressure for India's electricity-intensive EAF-based steel mills, aluminium smelters, and induction furnace operators, which already face LPG supply disruptions linked to Middle East conflict escalation; sustained crude elevation could further widen the cost-revenue squeeze for secondary mills managing high HMS scrap inputs at ₹38,500–₹42,050/MT and compressed per-tonne margins heading into the June–August monsoon construction slowdown.