Insights That Move
India's Steel Trade

China's industrial profits grew 17.6% year-on-year to CNY 4.58 trillion in the first seven months of 2026, moderating from an 18.7% gain in January-June but still indicating broad resilience. The sustained profitability supports ongoing metals consumption, underpinning global base metal and steel raw material prices.

Steel prices in India are expected to remain range-bound in the second half of 2026 rather than sharply directional. While seasonal monsoon corrections have pressured TMT bar prices down about 6% in Q1 FY27, elevated coking coal costs and strong infrastructure demand are expected to prevent any sustained price decline, with HR coil holding nearly flat over the quarter.

Shanghai rebar futures crossed CNY 3,100 per tonne, touching over one-month highs as traders positioned for stronger demand during China's peak September construction season. Beijing's latest round of policy support measures, aimed at boosting infrastructure and property sector activity, added bullish momentum to the global steel complex.

Delhi scrap markets on September 1 show a split trend: copper scrap remains firm at ₹1,404-1,545 per kg on tighter global supply and declining LME inventories, while brass scrap has softened to ₹930-970/kg on weaker fabrication demand. Aluminium wire scrap is down to ₹335/kg and zinc scrap has also eased amid subdued buying.

India's crude steel production rose 2.6% year-on-year to 56.3 million tonnes during April-July FY27, while total installed steelmaking capacity reached 221.9 MTPA. Finished steel production grew 4% to 54.3 MT, with hot metal output up 1.5% to 31.6 MT, reflecting steady capacity utilisation across integrated and secondary producers.

MCX zinc futures surged 7% over the past week to trade at ₹431 per kg on September 1, making it the best-performing base metal on the exchange. The rally is driven by plunging global warehouse inventories and persistent supply-side disruptions, even as copper and aluminium traded softer on the day.

Kyrgyzstan has extended its ban on ferrous scrap exports for another six months, further restricting the flow of scrap from Central Asia. The move could tighten scrap availability for Turkey and Indian importers who tap the region as a secondary supply source.

Sponge iron prices across India continued their upward march through late August, driven by domestic coal supply constraints and limited availability from key producing regions. The sustained cost pressure is squeezing margins for induction furnace and EAF-based secondary steel producers, who rely on sponge iron and scrap as primary feedstock.

Brass prices in India have risen 16.7% year-to-date, climbing from approximately $5.87/kg to $6.85/kg. Robust demand from construction, automotive and electrical component sectors, combined with tight LME copper and zinc supply, is keeping the market structurally firm heading into H2 2026.

Japan's JFE Steel has completed a first-tranche investment of $850 million in JSW Steel's Kalinga facility, supporting capacity expansion, technology transfer and long-term value-added manufacturing growth. The deal strengthens India-Japan industrial cooperation in the steel sector.

India's crude steel production reached a record 168.4 million tonnes in FY 2025-26, registering 10.7% year-on-year growth. Finished steel production stood at 160.9 MT while consumption touched 163.7 MT, consolidating India's position as the world's second-largest steel producer.

The global primary aluminium market deficit has widened sharply to an estimated 1.5 million tonnes for calendar year 2026, up from an earlier forecast of just 0.3 MT, driven by stronger-than-expected demand and slower capacity additions. The tighter market supports LME aluminium prices and benefits Indian producers Vedanta Aluminium and Hindalco, which together account for over 3.7 MTPA of smelting capacity.

Hindustan Copper Limited produced 3.67 million tonnes of copper ore in FY 2025-26, a 6% year-on-year increase, with metal-in-concentrate deliveries up 9% to 27,421 tonnes. The company has laid out an aggressive growth roadmap targeting 12.2 MT of ore production by FY 2029-30, more than tripling current output to address India's large refined copper deficit.

A recent green hydrogen tender in India has yielded a record-low discovered price of Rs 279 per kg, strengthening the economic viability of hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (H2-DRI) steelmaking. The price breakthrough could help India leverage its existing DRI expertise and growing renewable energy capacity to reduce dependence on imported coking coal while meeting tightening global carbon-intensity requirements.

India's ship recycling market share rose from 30.1% in 2024 to 35.4% in 2025, with volumes jumping approximately 60% to 2.99 million GT, cementing the country's position as the world's top ship recycler. The Alang yard in Gujarat accounts for nearly 98% of domestic capacity, and regulatory upgrades including the Ship Recycling Regulations 2026 and a credit note incentive scheme are drawing more vessels to compliant Indian yards.

Gold futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange rose 0.56% to ₹1.60 lakh per 10 grams on August 30, while silver futures climbed 0.74% to approximately ₹2.41 lakh per kilogram. Retail gold prices held steady at ₹15,030 per gram across major Indian cities, with market participants tracking global rate expectations and currency movements for further direction.

Steel scrap rates at Mandi Gobindgarh are under mild downward pressure as monsoon disruptions and stepped-up GST document verification at mandi entry points have slowed truck arrivals. Billet at the hub is trading near ₹44,100/MT while end-cutting scrap holds at ₹38,400/MT, with the quality premium between end-cutting and mixed scrap widening to ₹8,200/MT as mills continue paying up for clean grades even as mixed scrap at ₹30,200/MT gets squeezed.

Maharashtra's cabinet sub-committee has approved special incentives for five mega and ultra-mega industrial projects worth ₹89,731 crore. The largest is Adani Enterprises' ₹70,000 crore integrated coal gasification facility in Nagpur expected to create 10,000 jobs. Greta Energy & Metal will invest ₹2,763 crore in a 0.5 MTPA direct reduced iron plant in Chandrapur, marking one of the first private-sector projects under the government's coal gasification incentive scheme.

Steel Authority of India's Rourkela Steel Plant has formally received manufacturing technology for DMR-249B high-strength, low-alloy steel plates from DRDO's Defence Metallurgical Research Laboratory. The technology covers plates in the 8-30 mm thickness range for warship and submarine hull construction, with parallel transfers of DMR-249A and DMR-249BK billets to SAIL's Alloy Steel Plant in Durgapur, strengthening India's indigenous defence steel capability.

India's installed crude steel capacity has reached 220 million tonnes per annum as of FY26, with the government targeting 300 MT by FY2030-31 and 400 MT by FY2035-36. The expansion is driven by massive greenfield and brownfield projects from JSW Steel, Tata Steel, SAIL, and AM/NS India, supported by strong domestic demand that has doubled from 77 MT in FY15 to 152 MT in FY25.

India's iron ore production reached a record 313 million tonnes in FY2025-26, with NMDC achieving its best-ever July output of 4.06 MT, up 31% year-on-year. NMDC's cumulative April-July production rose 27% to 19.16 MT. Following the strong output, NMDC cut iron ore prices by ₹200/t for August, setting lumps at ₹5,250/t and fines at ₹4,500/t.

Zinc prices on the LME have surged past $3,850 per tonne, reaching their highest level since June 2022. The rally is driven by tightening supply, production disruptions from flooding in China — the world's largest zinc producer — and persistently low warehouse inventories. Zinc has gained nearly 8% over the past month and is up over 36% year-on-year.

Jindal Stainless is evaluating multiple land options in Maharashtra for a proposed ₹40,000 crore stainless steel manufacturing facility with 4 MTPA capacity. CEO Tarun Khulbe expects site clarity within one to two quarters, with the first phase targeted to be operational in four years. The plant will also manufacture specialised grades for hydrogen, nuclear, defence, and infrastructure applications.

India's total steel scrap consumption — combining domestic generation and net imports — is on course to reach approximately 45 million tonnes in FY 2026, nearly double the 25 MT consumed a decade ago. The growth is driven by rapid expansion of EAF and induction furnace-based steelmaking, which now accounts for over 57% of India's total crude steel output.

India's specialty steel segment showed strong momentum in the April-July period, with alloy steel production climbing 7% to 3.71 MT and exports surging 7% to 122,200 tonnes. Stainless steel consumption jumped 25% to 1.77 MT even as domestic production declined 2% to 1.38 MT, widening the supply gap and driving higher stainless steel imports.

India's domestic consumption of finished steel reached 55.9 million tonnes during April-July FY27, registering a 7.8% year-on-year increase, according to IBEF data. Crude steel production grew 2.6% to 56.3 MT while finished steel output rose 4.0% to 54.3 MT, indicating that demand growth is outpacing supply additions in the current fiscal year.

Premium hard coking coal prices have averaged $236 per metric ton FOB Australia in the first seven months of 2026, up 25% year-on-year, driven by supply disruptions in Australia, slow mine ramp-ups, the Shanxi coal mine disaster in China, and freight cost inflation linked to the Iran conflict. With coking coal accounting for nearly 40% of steelmaking costs and India importing 95% of its needs, the margin squeeze could impede capacity expansion plans across the sector.

India plans to increase the share of scrap metal in steel production from the current 22% to 50% by FY2047, according to Steel Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia. The Indian Steel Association estimates this shift could reduce the sector's carbon emissions by 28%, with scrap described as one of the most practical near-term solutions for decarbonisation compared to costlier hydrogen-based technologies.

JSW Steel is placing capacity expansion at the centre of its growth strategy, aiming to double steelmaking capacity to approximately 80 MTPA by 2031 through a combination of brownfield expansions, greenfield projects and strategic joint ventures. The company has maintained its 7-9% domestic demand growth expectations for FY27, supported by infrastructure and construction activity.

India returned to a net steel importer position during Q1 FY27 as imports from China, Japan and Russia surged 22% quarter-on-quarter. Inbound shipments of hot-rolled flat steel jumped nearly 49% year-on-year to 2.06 MT, while exports fell approximately 290,000 tonnes QoQ, prompting the DGTR to initiate an anti-dumping probe into HRC imports from these three countries.